Analysis of Climate Change and Food Security

Space Research Institute NASU-NSAU


WP3 – “Climate Change Impact Assessment and Food Security”
The objective of this WP is to provide assessment of climate changes impact to agriculture and to project corresponding trends and changes in the future. In order to approximate trends we will use the first or/and second degree polynomial. Correlation and regression analysis will be used to model yield dependence on meteorological and satellite-based proxy indices. In addition, correlation and PCA will be used to match the patterns of environmental and agricultural data. In order to derive future trends in climate and its impact for the food security we will use scenarios projected by IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change).
Tasks within WP3 are as follows:
3.1. Assess drought-related agricultural production losses.
3.2. Future trends in regional vegetation green-up, seasonal precipitation and temperature.
3.3. Future environmental trends contribution to food security in Ukraine.
Milestones & Deliverables within WP1 (KO = project start, Q = quarter):
D3.1 – KO + Q6: Preliminary estimations of drought-related agricultural production losses.
D3.2 – KO + Q7: Reports on future trends in vegetation and environmental parameters.
D3.3 – KO + Q8: Report on impact of climate changes to food security in Ukraine.
M3.1 – KO + Q8: Climate variation/change impacts assessment.
M3.2 – KO + Q8: Early detection of drought-and winter-related losses in grain production.
M3.3 – KO + Q8: 1981-2010 trend modeling and evaluation of “green-up” effects in regional vegetation.
M3.4 – KO + Q8: Statistical trend approximation in regional annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature.
M3.5 – KO + Q8: Estimation of climate-technology interaction and its contribution to yield increase.
M3.6 – KO + Q8: Diagnoses of anticipated climate changes contribution to food security.